Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Decision Due on Mark Prior

Let me weigh in on the Mark Prior situation. We all know that Prior is injury-prone, and a torn labrum is seriously bad news. But the fact is that Chris Carpenter did come back from this injury, and so potentially can Prior. This is a low-risk, high-upside situation.

Prior, if healthy, can be a key part of a great Cubs team in 2008. Prior, if sort of healthy, and a mediocre version of his former dominating self, can be a great steal at $3 million a year. Think of it this way: if someone will pay Juan Pierre $44 million, can't you justify spending $3 million on Prior just in case it works? There is no such thing as too much quality starting pitching!

The Cub rotation in 2008 looks like this:
1. Zambrano
2. Rich Hill
3. Ted Lilly
4. Ryan Dempster
5. Sean Marshall? Kevin Hart? Jason Marquis? Prior?

It is always a good sign in my experience when there are a lot of candidates, because inevitably with pitching someone gets hurt, and very often someone else goes horribly wrong (see Glendon Rusch!).
If the Cubs really want to trade, they should find a team desperate for starting pitching, and sell them on Jason Marquis. Don't expect a lot in return, because he has a big contract. It's not huge though; the main reason to move Marquis is because he is not needed in the rotation.

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