Friday, February 22, 2008

Cubs Rotation Very Promising This Year

Starting pitching will be the Cubs' strength this year. We have a good surplus of arms. When you have that, you are in good shape because pitching wins ballgames and championships. We have a legit ace in Zambrano, a great young lefty in Rich Hill, and a solid veteran in Ted Lilly. The favorites to be the other two starters are Ryan Dempster and Jon Lieber. If anything goes wrong, there is still Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart. This miles better than 2006, when Dusty Baker was forced to send out there anyone who was healthy and was willing to do it; this is how Sean Marshall got to the majors too soon, and why Carlos Marmol was stuck in the starting rotation. A smart GM stockpiles starting pitchers. Jim Hendry has also done it.

Pirates... Still Destined for Below .500

What's to say about the Pittsburgh Pirates? Since the day that Francisco Cabrera singled home Sid Bream to eliminate the Pirates, they have been irrelevant when the topic was winning. After that game, Barry Bonds went free agent. At the time, he was an exciting young player at the top of his physical ability. No one dreamed that he would ever challenge Hank Aaron. Now, Bonds is a ramshackle pariah, a living joke and a symbol of baseball's excess. It took a long time to reach that point. All of which illustrates just how long it has been since the Pirates mattered.

They haven't won a pennant since the days of Willie Stargell, Dave Parker, John Candelaria, and Kent Tekulve. It is sad, but as a Cub fan my sympathy is limited for any team I have ever witnessed a World Champion. I started watching baseball in 1979. I can still remember seeing them take on the Orioles on a raised up TV in the Einstein School gym during a Cub Scout meeting. Back then, Scouting came first. Big mistake; I missed some 1984 playoff games that way. By the way, the Orioles haven't been prominent much lately either.

What I'm saying is, gee, the Pirates still exist, but, well, don't bother worrying about them. They only threaten the Cubs in the role of spoiler. I'm much more worried about LaRussa's Cards, Dusty's Reds, and Ozzie's Sox ruining our season with some demoralizing and disrespectful defeats at the worst possible time (Cub fans, we are not short of arch-rivals these days. Especially since our sort-of arch rival Milwaukee is very, very good now).

What do the Pirates have? Tom Gorzelanny (Triton College player and Chicago native), Ian Snell, and Paul Maholm. In a best case scenario, they become the best three-person group of starters in the division. But what usually happens in Pirate land these days is that they count on certain players and then those players go out and let them down.

They also have Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Xavier Nady, and Jason Bay. It's an acceptable core, sort of. it's just not enough. The only hope for the Pirates is to keep this team together and hope they bond and jell as a unit while improving as individuals. And of course, those three pitchers need to come through again. Even so, it still wouldn't be enough.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Rejoice! Cardinals Headed for Hard Times!

Continuing my NL Central preview, here is my view on the Cardinals. They have made little secret that they are rebuilding. Jim Edmonds is gone, David Eckstein is gone, Scott Rolen, and once again they have not been active in the free agent market. A few years ago, the Cardinals regularly brought in top talent through trades, and then signed them to long term deals (Rolen and Edmonds are the best cases of this). Ever snice their surprise championship in 2006, the Cardinals have been conservative with their money, preferring to live off of that glow, instead of pushing to repeat. Now they have probably the weakest lineup ni the division, even with having Albert Pujols at first base. With the starters scheduled to be Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan, the Cardinals outfield will have some power but have troubnle gettnig on base. The infield also is full of guys who can't hit; Adam Kennedy, and Cesar Izturis are the up the middle glove men. Troy Glaus is present at third. If he stays helathy, he will help. The Cardinals could really hit if everything is perfect, but that is not what a team should count on, and it's not what fans want to see either.

Juan Gonzalez (yes, HIM!) is in the Cardinals' camp, with a chance to make a comeback at age 38. It is exciting to think about his bat in its prime, but 38 is very old for a player with a bad back like Gonzalez has. His work ethic has been challenged in the past as well.

The Cardinals are set in only a couple of places on the pitching roster. Adam Wainwright is the best starting pitcher left, not counting Chris Carpenter, who is a great pitcher but is coming off of an injury. I think that as great of a manager as Tony LaRussa is, he needs someone to build his pitching staffs for him. When left on his own, he focuses on gettnig the most out of his pitchers and then turning it over to his bullpen. Everywhere that he has managed, he has come to a point of havnig too many six inning pitchers. Now he has created this problem in St. Louis too; the rest of the rotation is a real collection of oddballs and prayers. I'm talking about Matt Clement, Braden Looper, Mark Mulder, and Joel Piniero. None of these guys have been both healthy and productive in any recent year.

You can count on LaRussa to get the most out of his bullpen, and to fnid random guys and brign them to ERAs under 3.50. He does this year in and year out, in a great tradition going back to Dennis Eckersley, Rick Honeycutt, and Gene Nelson. Established closer Jason Isringhausen is back. I am confident that Tony can build a good bullpen with the players in camp.

But its not enough; the Cardinals now lack young, hungry position players, and good, young 200-inning type starting pitchers. Were Wainwright to hurt his arm, and Carpenter not to come back healthy, it could be a disaster in their rotation. As it is, I think the Cardinals will be around .500. Without LaRussa, it would be far less. But also without LaRussa, there would be more of an emphasis on rebuilding. This is why LaRussa eventually had to leave Oakland; he refused to rebuild and to play losing games today in return for bigger winnings tomorrow.

Do We Need Brian Roberts?

The Cubs are trying to trade for Brian Roberts still. There is a good side and a bad side to this deal. I am still worried about trading with our old, Andy MacPhail. I think any GM should be wary of trading with someone who knows their farm system inside and out like MacPhail does. It has not been very long since Andy was here, and he was a great baseball mind in his past (though he was unable to make it work here in Chicago). Second, Roberts has been listed as a steroid user in the Mitchell Report. It is not so much that I think the Cubs should be too good to employ any former steroid users; I just worry that his only real good season he ever had was a result of a substance he is no longer on. If this is true, we may give Baltimore great prospects for a mediocre and injury-prone second baseman.

On the other hand, Brian Roberts would give us a legitimate lead-off hitter, one who can give our lineup more lefty/righty balance. Really, with Roberts, Fukudome, and possibly Felix Pie, we would be OK against tough right handers who have eaten the Cubs' righty-dominated lineups alive in the past.

Mark DeRosa is our second baseman at the moment, but he is not a great defender.

Despite this, he is a great utility man. I think that he would be best used as the Cubs' irregular regular, popping up in the lineup more often than not at a combination of second, third, first, left, and right, and even shortstop once in a blue moon.

The point is, I think, that I have softened my opinion against acquiring Roberts. I can favor this deal only if we don't give MacPhail TOO much in return, and if Piniella will make it a priority to get 500 plate appearances for DeRosa, enough for him to feel respected and eager to contribute.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Reds Are a Mystery This Year

When I think of the Cincinnati Reds this year, i think of two names: Dusty Baker, and Jay Bruce. Last year, the Reds dusted off Josh Hamilton, and revived the former #1 overall pick. This off-season, they traded Hamilton away specifically to clear a spot for prized prospect Jay Bruce to play center field.

We have all heard of Baker's bad reputation, as regards developing young talent. With Bruce, rated by many scouts as the best position player prospect in baseball, the wost kind of manager to have would be Dusty, especially if he is everything his critics say he is.

I doubt it, though. Baker comes in to a situation he has never had in career; managing a non-contender with no immediate expectations. My opinion says Dusty reds the tea leaves accurately, shows the wisdom of his years, and guides the Reds patiently (except maybe when he goes to Wrigley for the first time, he just might try extra hard to win those games).

So let's look at what Dusty has to work with: the biggest strength is the outfield, with Adam Dunn, Griffey, and Jay Bruce. This has an outside shot at being the majors best outfield, statwise, if Jay Bruce were to have ROY-type numbers, and Griffey stays healthyish. I wouldn't ask for more than "ish" from Griffey.

The infield has some punch too, with outstanding 2b Brandon Phillips, Encarnacion at 3b, Jeff Keppinger back to see if he can hit .300 again at SS, and either veteran Scott Hatteberg at first, or top prospect Joey Votto taking over.

The pitching staff is not deep, though it has great starting pitching at the front of the rotation. Aaron Harang is a true ace that I watched beat Carlos Zambrano twice in 2007. Bronson Arroyo is a great pitcher, with stats that look worse than they are playing in Cincinnati's homer-tacular home park. Other starters include Homer Bailey, and Jeremy Affeldt. Chad Cordero is the new closer, but steady veteran Dave Weathers remains to help in the setup role.

Baker is known for getting the most of his players, and this will be the case in 2008 for the Reds. I predict the Dusty Effect will get the Reds out in front early, but their lack of pitching will eventually catch up with them. Conceivably the Reds could win the division with 90 or so wins IF Harang has a Cy-Young kind of season, Arroyo a career year, Jay Bruce hits .300 with 30 homers, Dunn and Griffey give the usual production, and Cordero is outstanding in the pen. So, yes, what I'm saying is that the Reds can win if everything goes perfect. But in this age of baseball, some teams, such as Rays, Royals, or Pirates, cannot say the same. As Cub fans, we have endured some seasons in which even if everything went perfect, we still wouldn't have gone to the playoffs.

Still Talking About Clemens?

You guys know what the best part of being a Cubs fan is right now? No prominent players of ours were in that Mitchell Report. Also, how much would it suck if the CUbs had broken their no-championships run in about 2000 when it looks like a lot of Yankees and Mets were on the juice? I wouldn't want to see our glory year reduced to this level.

I'm re-thinking whether or not Mark McGwire should be in the Hall. He WAS the best home run hitter of his time; pitchers were on the juice, too, as were a lot, if not all, of the big power men of the time (Sosa was on HGH and Superballs, I guess). Other known cheaters are in the Hall; Gaylord Perry is one. The tactics of John McGraw and Ty Cobb strike me as so much shadier than what McGwire has done (which was not illegal). Believe me, it would be easy to just laugh and wave off this former Cardinal great. As a Cub fan, I welcome having something good to say back when these downstate and Arch-city upstarts laugh and tell us that anyone can have a bad century! Oooooh!

But let's put the pitchforks and flaming torches away and just test aggressively for future users. We all loved the homers. Chick dig the long ball, and all that. For that, we all share some blame for this substance fiasco. Roger, more than anythign else, is guilty of insulting our intelligence, and being too arrogant to imagine himself behind bars for perjury. I'm sorry if he thinks only Democrats ever get in trouble for the things they do wrong. Roger, it's not true. Save yourself while there is still time.

Friday, February 15, 2008

More on the Brewers and Why I Think They Are the Threat This Year...

I briefly posted the day before yesterday on why I thought the Brewers were the real team to beat in this year's NL Central. I stick by that theory. Milwaukee has a chance to shock everyone by winning a whole lot of games.

Last year, Prince Fielder hit 50 homers. He drove in 119. He was a team leader. I consider him the best power hitter in the NL now, maybe in all of baseball. His slugging was .618 and his OPS was 1.018. His one base was almost .400. Would ARod be able to hit 50 in Milwaukee? Maybe not at this point. Milwaukee has another great young hitter, Ryan Braun (AKA the Hebrew Hammer). Last year Braun hurt his team with his defense, while crushing pitching to a .634 slugging percentage and a 1.004 OPS. That's not all for their hitting; also here is Bill Hall, who hit 35 homers in 2006, Corey Hart, who hit 24 last year and slugged .539, Rickie Weeks, who only hit .235 but walked a ton, has great bat speed, and finished the end of the season well, and J.J. Hardy, who hit 24 homers, though he was a shortstop.

Improving the defense this year will be veteran CF Mike Cameron, who pushes Bill Hall back to the infield at 3B, which moved Ryan Braun to left field. This tightens up things in their defense greatly, which will help their pitching.

The Brewers pitching staff is not without question marks, but it also has a lot of upside potential. Ben Sheets is still here, and still a great pitcher. The Brewers also have one of baseball's best young pitchers, Yovani Gallardo, who impressed in a half season last year. Solid 200-inning type pitchers Jeff Suppan and David Bush are here to help with the starting pitching. Chris Capuano had a rough year last year, but if he pitches like he did in the mid-decade, that will be a quality arm for the Brewers.

The bullpen is a bit more of a question, and the Brewers need to find some answers for this. Bullpens often come out of nowhere to play well, though, and it is difficult to project how things would shape. Eric Gagne is now the closer, which is no sure thing. Derrick Turnbow is still here; he was the closer in 2005, very successfully. Turnbow throws very hard.

Bench depth and experience exists, with Craig Counsell (always a great component for a winning team), Gabe Kapler, and Gabe Gross.

If things go well in Milwaukee, it could be the year for the Brew Crew.

For a breakdown of the Cubs' minor league prospects, check out this article:
http://cubs.scout.com/a.z?s=260&p=2&c=727638

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

My Firecast: Brewers Are the Team to Beat

Spring training is starting this week. I have seen some of the early analysis about the division and the Cubs’ chances in it. I am surprised that the media has decided that the Cubs are the favorite to win their division. As a Cub fan, I know better. The Cubs should never really be favored to win; whatever curse they have is alive and well.

I think the favorite to win this division is Milwaukee. They have great young talent in Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, and J.J. Hardy. Things will have to go riht for their pitching to be good enough, but that isn’t so hard to imagine. Last year, they fought us to the end without Ben Sheets there for a full season. One of these years, the Brewers will win the division because Sheets stayed healthy for a full year and they found just enough pitching to surround him with.

Baseball has shown time and again that teams with young skilled hitters are winners. Some examples are last year’s Dbacks and Rockies. Every few years, the Cubs win the division because the competitors were all having a down year together. That was true in 2007. The Brewers were not quite ready to take that next step. The next step is harder in organizations that have gone so many years without success as have the Brewers.

What the Cubs have done this offseason has not impressed me (except Fukudome). I am really excited about our new import.