Regarding the "Prior" Comments

I'm not sure if Prior is a jerk or a good guy. Really, there's no way to know, sitting at home online or in front of the Cubs game on TV. When someone says this guy or that guy is a bad teammate, or a bad guy, it must be taken with a grain of salt. Is the person creating the impression that Prior is a jerk a Tribune employee paving the road out of town for Prior (to save the company money)? Is it a reporter who just doesn't like him as a person, or who has a grudge because Prior wouldn't give him some time or an interview at some point? Is it a teammate who is popular with his peers but is not as talented as Prior? (That could be any of them!)

As fans who never met these players, I don't think it is OK for us to base our judgments of their personalities without any firsthand knowledge because then we are empowering the people who spread rumors and damage reputations for ulterior motives. When we do that, the Cubs suffer on the whole as well.

Prior Signs With Padres...

Now we will see if I was right to suggest that the Cubs should have retained Mark Prior. Prior has a $1 million/ 1 year contract with his hometown team, San Diego. I somehow suspect he is very happy with this outcome. Being a Padre means he gets to pitch his home games in Petco, which will help his numbers.

How much the Padres get from Prior is unknown, but for San Diego, this contract was a no-brainer. It will be a long time before a player with this kind of ability is available so cheaply again.

So this year's rotation will be Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Dempster, Marquis, and possibly Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. There are enough candidates with potential that it was OK to turn Prior away from the baseball perspective. But after what Prior meant to this team, in 2003, I would have liked to see the Cubs give him another chance, to see how his arm looked after he was done rehabbing this year.

In other news, the Yankees have signed LaTroy Hawkins. So is George Steinbrenner too far gone to stop this type of madness? Yes. LaTroy and demanding fans were not a good mix; the Yankees also failed to learn not to get mid-decade Cub relievers. What, exactly, did Kyle Farnsworth do for New York?

Shawn Green?

Recently one of our readers suggested that the Cubs should go to acquire Shawn Green. Would this make sense? I wasn't aware of it before, but Green hails from Des Plaines. He's also my age, as well. What Green would offer is a fourth outfield bat; on certain days, maybe with the wind bowing out, Fukudome could play center and Green can play right. Actually, with the wind blowing out, Piniella could even see if Soriano could get by in center, and put Green in left that day. Most of this only makes sense if Felix Pie isn't ready or just doesn't work out. With Cliff Floyd gone, there is room here for Shawn Green. Whether or not he is interested in coming to the Cubs without a starting job is a good question. But being from the area, it is more likely than not that Green grew up a Cub fan and would love to play in Wrigley, and at age 35, maybe even if it's only part time.

This just might happen, if Green is willing to accept a backup job at this point. He is not the hitter he used to be, though he still can hit for average, with a .291 last year. He doesn't walk a lot but he is also not an impatient hitter. He doesn't run like he used to at this age either.

Overall, bringing in a fourth outfielder is something the cubs need to do, and Green makes sense because if Pie doesn't work out, we can still have a good team. If Pie does play well, then Green will not have enough playing time.

Pressure is off, Alfonso... Time to Show Us Your "A" Game

At the start of the 2007 season, all eyes were on Alfonso Soriano. And he responded with a slump, and then an injury. But when the smoke cleared, Soriano had had a good year.


On pure talent alone, no Cub touches Alfonso Soriano. Soriano remains the highest-paid Cub in 2008. He is also the best all-around athlete on the team, without question. He has great power and speed. He has a great arm. Soriano has the physical ability to be as good as any player in baseball. But he has received little adulation from the Cub fandom, nothing compared to Derrek Lee, or Carlos Zambrano.

What was good about Soriano in 2007? Would we have made the playoffs without him? Soriano was on a tear in September; when the Cubs needed to push, he hit more September homers than any Cub ever did. More than Dave Kingman, more than Derrek Lee, more than Ernie Banks, and even more than Sammy Sosa in any one September. Soriano was similarly crushing pitchers before his unfortunate hamstring injury.

Was he worth $13 million to the Cubs this year?
The perception of Cub fans is that Soriano is not all that he can be. ON the other hand, its not like the Yankees got twice as much player from A-Rod for the money. I would say that Soriano’s salary is in line with what a proven bat who is young and healthy can command. Also, his contract is for seven more years; by the time he is in the later years of it and not the player he was when he was signed in 2007 (he’d be 38 years old), salary inflation may well be so high that it’s not a big deal. Maybe 38-year old sluggers will cost $13 million per by the year 2014.
He insists on batting leadoff, though he has a .560 slugging percentage.
True, but any time you can get someone that good you are better off. He is still fast, capable of scoring from second on any hit that reaches the outfield, and even stealing a base or two.

He has great speed and a great arm, but is not a good defensive player, even in the outfield.
It’s true that some of his outfield assists were because his arm was not respected as much as it should be. It’s also true that left field is not an important defensive position. Maybe you’d rather see Matt Murton out there, or George Bell. Soriano does play better defense than many comparable offensive threats.
He had only 70 RBIs with his 33 homers, because he insisted on batting leadoff. He walked only 31 times but struck out 130.
It’s not abot how often you walk; it’s also about how often you get on base. Soriano’s overall OBP was .337; not worthy of a leadoff man but not a disaster either. A .270 hitter who walked a lot more would be in a similar statistical level.
Another plus with Soriano is his health. Yes, he did have some hamstring woes last season. But he has never torn an ACL, or hurt his back, or anything else that would permanently cut down his power and speed.

So it was Zell's idea...

The plan for the state of Illinois' Illinois Sports Facilities Authority to purchase and renovate Wrigley Field was originated by Sam Zell, the real estate tycoon who is in negotiations to purchase all of the Tribune Company. It is sad that the newspaper business in America has declined to the point to where it ends up in Sam Zell's hands. Now, it will be parcelled out however brings the highest possible dollar returns for the businessman Zell. Perhaps it is poetic justice for a right-wing, conservative paper so far to the right that it has endorsed the Republican for every presidential election since 1876. Yes, poetic justice to end up like so many other corporations and workforces the Tribune cheerleaded the destruction of, for the pleasure of Wall Street.

But I digress - regarding this deal: I shouldn't have to remind you all how wary I am of this state's politicians becoming involved in the care and maintenance of a building I love. Since D-Rod is a real Cubs fan, he should think twice about this deal before Wrigley goes all Hired Truck on us when the contracts for the renovations are actually completed. Believe me, taxpayers, this will cost you.

I am also not fond of the plans; MORE skyboxes? The skyboxes have already ruined the view from certain seats. And naming rights? Join with me, Cub fans, and make sure that the hypothetical corporation gets very little from splashing their name on our beloved landmark. You know Len Kasper will have no trouble getting AON Center at Wrigley Field out of his mouth but I hope none of you ever use that name. (AON is just an example. Please no angry letters to them citing my page.) I'll concede that I can't come up with a good reason there cannot be a parking garage. I would sure love it if it was nowhere in my field of vision once inside the stadium, that's all.

I don't think the state's taxpayers need to contribute this money to the pockets of politically connected insiders. Remember how it goes with these kind of projects; $350 million is just the beginning number. The real taxpayers' bill will be twice as much. But for Zell, and the governor's cronies, a great source of profit. So why is Daley mad? Well, for one, Zell approached Blagojevich and not him. That said, he DOES have a point about the awful, awful CTA.

Wrigley Uncertain Too?

Now in this era of Cub uncertainty, even the fate of Wrigley Field is not certain. My first thought when hearing that the Tribune was hoping to pull Wrigley out of the deal was that maybe they were afraid Sam Zell would try to turn it into condos or something. But Wrigley has landmark status, and there is no way this can happen. The real move behind this must come from either Blagojevich, a true blue Cubs fan (wouldn't he love, as governor, to be technically in charge of Wrigley too?) or from Zell, who would rather not deal with any landmark properties.

As much as I am a believer in government's capacity to do good, and a skeptic of current ideas about small government and privatization, I still don't feel comfortable with the State taking over Wrigley Field. If that happens, the management of it will be done by bureaucrats who don't really care about the stadium or the team. The Cubs will be at odds with Wrigley's management.

The Tribune has maximized Wrigley's potential all these years out of a desire to turn a liability into an asset; when the Cubs didn't have lights before 1988, day baseball was glorified on TV, and shown on the Tribune's WGN. When the lights were installed, the neighborhood was able to work with the team to maintain a low number of night games. If the State of Illinois is in charge, it will be much more difficult to keep the day games, especially when the state cries poor.

Wrigley should be sold to someone who wants to profit off of its potential while doing his best to make sure he does not kill the golden goose. No government body should be put in charge of a priceless but aging building to be run for profit. Especially not this corrupt state, or worse yet, the city-unless you want corrupt Sox fans as Wrigley's new masters.

No Hope for Prior?

I was expecting to blog about the Mitchell Report today, I really was. I thought Sosa would be on it. I thought SOME Cub of note would be on there somewhere. But the Tribsters spared all five of you readers from non-Cub talk today by trying to sneak the release of Mark Prior past us bloggers, seamheads, and legitimate media by doing it the same day as the Steroid news.

I said it here before: Prior's salary is not very much at all compared to his potential. We will pay Ted Lilly more this year than Prior made in his entire career; if there is a chance at all that Prior can even give us 50 innings of quality in 2008, then he should be signed prior (sorry) to arbitration. Because 3 million plus is a great deal on a low innings-pitched reliever. In this era of quantifying value on a dollar basis, I don't believe Prior at this price was very much bad business at all.

By doing this, the Cubs are saying that there is no realistic chance for Prior to revive his career. I admit I was depressed to hear that Prior's injury was a torn labrum. That's far worse than a torn elbow ligament, of the kind that normally sidelines pitchers for a year or more. Torn labrums often end careers.

Conventional wisdom states that it is bad to work pitchers too hard when they are very young; it leads to injuries all too often. Maybe this was the case with Prior. If that is a possibility, the Cubs would have been a classier outfit if they employed Prior for one more year while he was rehabbing, just to see if he had anything left. If he ever regained the magic, he might remember who had his back when he was down and out.

Or maybe the Cubs had wrong information linking Prior to the Mitchell Report. Maybe that tricky Billy Beane lied to them.

My best guess is that this is classic corporation behavior, as commonly seen in 2008. It indicates more than anything else that the Cubs decided there was more to gain financially by cutting Prior than by taking the chance. Hey, they did well without him in 2007! When I see something like this, I appreciate Kerry Wood's action in turning down better money elsewhere to be here. But I hope he did that for us fans, and not out of any naive loyalty to the Tribune.

The next time any journalist pines for the days when players spent all of their careers with one team, remember this example. The old days were built on a loyalty that went only one direction, from player to team. The present day is no different except that now the players can sometimes do what's best for themselves.

Goodbye, Mark Prior. If you attempt a comeback I will root for you, and in some cases even against the Cubs (like, before September 15th or when we're not in the race). If not, we will always have 2003 and I hope you invested some bonus money wisely.

Fukudome is Here!

I have cheered on the Cubs' attempts to bring Kosuke Fukudome to the Cubs, and those efforts have not been for nothing; he was signed to a 4-year, $48 million-dollar contract last night. The Cubs have their right fielder, left-handed bat, and selective pitch-count working hitter all rolled into one.

There are two potential downsides, which I feel will not turn out to be important (at least, not according to my crystal ball). One is Fukudome's elbow; he missed half the season last year in Japan. The other is the difference between the Japanese league and the major leagues; it is not likely that Fukudome can seriously hit 30 homers here, especially since lefty hitters do not benefit from a short power alley in Wrigley as do right-handed hitters.

But with the success of Japanese players like Ichiro, who was known for being a .300 hitter at home, and kept on rolling when he got to Seattle, I expect that Fukudome CAN hit .300 here, since he did it consistently in Japan. Hitting is a skill that translates leagues well, though it is clear home runs are easier to get in Japan (I hear the ballparks are smaller). Fukudome was also the center fielder for Japan during the 1996 World Baseball Classic.

So what would it take for Fukudome to earn his $12 million annually, if he doesn't get to 30 homers? Part of his contribution will show up in the stats of his teammates; Lee and Ramirez will bat behind him, and will especially benefit from Fukudome's count-working, and will get extra RBIs on their homers when Fukudome walks or singles. As the new guy, Fukudome will occupy attention in the media and of the fans. This is good for Felix Pie; if the outfield hits a ton as now it might, Pie only needs to patrol center well and make some strides forward as a hitter. He doesn't have to bat in the top of the lineup, and he won't be the primary left-handed bat.

The Cubs' lineup was too right-handed before this move, and now that has changed a great deal. Against tough right-handed pitchers, the Cubs can play Mike Fontenot at second to add one more lefty.

Fukudome will probably hit .300, though with the league adjustment and all-new pitchers to learn, he may not provide much power. That's ok, because the Cubs have plenty without needing him to provide it, with Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez. This left-handed bat is a key part of the Cubs' drive to win the division.

The lineup as I assume it stands today:

LF Soriano
SS Theriot
RF Fukudome
1b Lee
3b Ramirez
2b DeRosa/Fontenot
CF Pie
C Soto

I am pretty sure about the first five, though the sequence of the last three may not be decided until spring training.

And one more thing: the Astros acquired Miguel Tejada today, meaning it is all the more important that the Cubs improved their own team. Well done, Jim Hendry.

Awaiting Word on Fukudome

According to Kosuke Fukudome'a agent, the Japanese outfielder as decided he will definitely play in the majors in 2008. The White Sox were interested, but Fukudome is likely to sign with either the Cubs or the Padres. I would imagine that most Asian players would rather be on the West Coast, which would give San Diego the upper hand. It is also true that of course, when you come across the ocean to play, you'd rather be on a good team, a playoff team.

However, the Cubs are a better team right now than the Padres, who didn't even make the playoffs last year (thank you, Michael Barrett!). Also, Petco is a terrible hitters' park that has crushed the careers of Phil Nevin, Brian Giles, Ryan Klesko, and others. Have you noticed how many hitters have gone to Petco to stop hitting? I hope the Cubs will scare Fukudome out of considering the Padres.

Also, we still owe them one from 1984. No, Fukudome wouldn't be payback by himself. Unless, of course, we face the Padres in the NLCS and he pulls a Steve Garvey to put us in the series. At that point, I'm ok with it if we lose, so long as it's to the Tigers. But you know, they were our opponents last time they won. Ty Cobb can't help them now, either!!

Tim Lahey, newest Cub

In the Rule V draft, Tampa Bay used the first pick to grab Tim Lahey from the Minnesota Twins organization. After that, they sold Lahey to the Cubs. Lahey had some success in AA, getting 14 saves at New Britain. His statistics are not eye-popping, so I can understand why he was not on the 40-man roster. Also, he was a catcher in his college days back at Princeton, but the Twins moved him to pitching.

For those of you not familiar with Rule 5, a team pays $50,000 to take any player not on a 40-man roster and have him to keep. The only stipulation is that if at any team that team tries to send him to the minors during his first year, they must offer to give him back to his old team for just $25,000. IN this way, bad teams can keep good teams from hogging all the talent.

But it is rare that any team uses it; the last Cub (and only Cub) I remembered acquired in this way was Jose Nunez in 1990. Back in the 1980s, the Blue Jays had success with this manuever, using it to get Jorge Bell and Kelly Gruber. The Cubs actually lost a player this wayl Kansas City took single-A lefty starter Andrew Sisco in the Rule 5 draft, and stuck him in their bullpen. He pitched well, and now he is with the White Sox. This was back in 2005.

One thing this team has a lot of is right-handed relievers. But they really wanted Lahey; otherwise, they would not have paid Tampa to draft and sell him. Maybe with his background as a catcher, and his Princeton pedigree, the Cubs think he will "get it" more quickly than most young pitchers. They may be right. If he is impressive in the spring, he can join Wood, Howry, Marmol, and Wuertz as right-handed bullpen options. If everyone in that group is healthy, Wuertz may be dealt somewhere he is needed more.

But neither Sisco nor Nunez succeeded long-term; Sisco is now back in AAA, re-learning to start. His Royals stint put his career in reverse. Nunez never really pitched in the big leagues again, except briefly. The Rule 5 draft is a dangerous thing for a prospect.

Examining the Cubs' lineup for 2008

Let's look at the Cubs' starting lineup as it might be, if the season starts tomorrow.

LF Alfonso Soriano (R)
SS Ryan Theriot (R)
1B Derrek Lee (R)
3B Aramis Ramirez (R)
RF ??
2B Mark DeRosa (R)
C Geovany Soto (R)
CF Felix Pie (L)

So this is why the Cubs don't just WANT Fukudome; they NEED him. If Fukudome can handle center, then we can get away with putting Matt Murton in right field. But as of now, there is not a single proven left handed bat in the lineup. Pie had struggles. Maybe in a lineup like that he would really benefit in that you'd be crazy to start a left-hander against it. The other in-house idea is to use Mike Fontenot when possible at second. If he is ready for big leagues, Eric Patterson could fill that role. Also, Daryle Ward can play right field.

But seeing a lineup with Felix Pie is the only left-handed bat shows why the Cubs have to solve their outfield problem with someone who hits lefty. This is also why the Cubs wanted Kaz Matsui; using him at second, they can play DeRosa in his utility role.

If the Cubs can't get Fukudome, they would probably turn to the trade market. What they would have to offer could be Murton, a starting pitcher like Sean Marshall, and maybe Fontenot. But while it can be fun to imagine taking all your leftovers and sending them away for exactly what you need, in the winter meetings the other GMs no doubt are trying to induce Jim Hendry to give up his best prospects like Eric Patterson or Felix Pie, or a young pitcher just established like Rich Hill.

Jose Ascanio Trade

The Cubs traded Omar Infante (recently came from Detroit, in a trade for Jacque Jones) along with Will Ohman for Jose Ascanio, a minor league reliever. There have been a lot of snarky, sarcastic posts on various blogs in regard to this move. Essentially the Cubs have sent two major leaguers for a minor leaguer, and not one who was well known.

Whether or not Ascanio is very good is almost irrelevant. Would it really be surprising if the whole point was to dump the salaries of Jones and Ohman? First they traded Jones for Infante; Jones' salary had to be paid, since the team signed him in free agency. You can't get out of paying it with any maneuver except trading the player with the player's permission. Jones' 2008 salary will be $5 million. Ohman was also making 1.5 million. This too was part of the equation.

So the Cubs save $6.5 million this year with this trade. Based on that, I'd be very surprised if Ascanio is any good at all.

Then consider Infante and Ohman; the Cubs can be better in 2008 just be finding other players to do these jobs. The Cubs have issues with being too right-handed in their lineup, and also lacking patient hitters. Infante, when he would be in the lineup, makes both problems worse! Ohman was a disappointment. The Cubs invested a lot of years waiting for this guy to be a great lefty reliever. But relievers are like that; often they bounce around for years and years being young screw-ups before suddenly becoming trustworthy, dependable vets who give you late-inning peace of mind.

Cubs increase ticket prices

As expected, the Cubs increased their ticket prices for 2008 games. Is this really a surprise to anyone? Cub game ticket prices are like college tuition prices; they go up every year because they can. The only reason both don't go up every single week like gas prices is that unlike gas, the seats are available far in advance.

Are these prices fair? If the seats will in fact be sold, then I would say that they are fair prices, in terms of supply and demand. There are so many Cub fans in and out of town that any seat in this small park is at a premium. "Going to the Cub game" remains an experience apart from watching the Cub game.

That said, it has not been true for years that "there is not a bad seat in the house." No longer true; with the addition of the skyboxes in the 1990s, some terrace reserve seats in the lower deck have a very poor view of the outfield. There is no way to track fly balls or popups. You just have to watch where the defenders are running to, to get a feel for where the ball is.

The Tribune is still in the process of being sold to Sam Zell- my understanding is that the deal is not yet finished. After that, Zell wishes to sell the team, mbeing quoted as saying that he is not interested in being owner of the team because he does not understand the business. I saw an incredible profile of Zell on the newsstand (yes, pinching pennies these days so didn't actually buy it) in which Zell negotiates a real estate deal with some rich sheiks to make a ridiculous complex in Abu Dhabi. I think Zell understands complex transactions that most of us really could never wrap our minds around, no matter how long we tried. So why doesn't Zell understand a business in which A) he owns a commodity that most Chicagoans want and B) he is part of a nationwide monopoly; C) despite their relative incompetence, the current owners are easily able to raise prices at will, and D) other businesses like it (there are only 31 others and only 5 are in equal size markets) have appreciated hugely in value.

Maybe the truth is somewhere in D; Zell must think now is the time to sell a baseball team, not buy one. Maybe he is right. He's the tycoon, not me. When I get a financial idea, it tends to be pessimistic before its time, but eventually accurate. I thought real estate was over-valued in 2003. No one else thought so until 2006. I thought stocks would fall before they eventually did. The point is, I think MLB franchises can still increase in value, and maybe double even from this point, before anyone loses money selling one (even the Rays).

A slow OBP guy...

Will Jason Kendall be missed? The Cubs used many catchers last year, and at the end of the season, our starteter was the former Piarate and A Jason Kendall. Kendall provided good OBP, though when you actually watched the games, he didn’t seem to contribute much on offense.

In this era of homer-happy baseball, where baserunning is largely station-to-station, OBP has supplanted AVG as the standard. But it is only in getting to first base that a walk is as good as a hit; you cannot score from second on a walk; you cannot go from first to third on a walk; outfielders cannot bobble, misplay, or overthrow on a walk.

When I was growing up, many games were played on Astroturf. This placed a premium on speed. No cub fan can forget the terrors of the mid-80s Cardinals. Speedy players also tend to play defense well. That shows up most of all in improved range, whether infield or outfield.

Attendance-challenged teams should try this approach; get some speedsters, and go with the old pitching-speed-and-defense combo that ruled until the steroid era began. Fans do love homers, but they will come out to the game to see steals, especially by the home team.

And you know what? A stolen base is as good as a double, and a caught stealing isn’t a strategic blunder in all cases. The threat of the stolen base reduces a pitcher’s arsenal, adds to his tiring if not his technical pitch count, and opens up the infield.

And one more thing; an aggressive baserunning team will force a high-OBP guy like Kendall to the bench if it means the opposition will run wild!