Rating the 2008 Cubs

On a 1-10 scale, my ratings of the Cubs' players:

C - Geovany Soto 6
1b - Derrek Lee 7
2b - Mark DeRosa 6
SS - Ryan Theriot 6
3b - Aramis Ramirez 9
LF - Alfonso Soriano 9
CF - Felix Pie 4
RF - Kosuke Fukudome 7

SP - Carlos Zambrano 9
SP - Ted Lilly 7
SP - Rich Hill 6
SP - Ryan Dempster 6
SP - Jason Marquis 5
CL - Kerry Wood 7
RP - Carlos Marmol 10
RP - Bobby Howry 9

I weight these players at 50% of the value of the starting eight and the top pitchers:

RP - Michael Wuertz 8
RP - Carmen Pigniatello 6
RP - Jon Lieber 6
C - Henry Blanco 6
OF - Reed Johnson 6
OF - Daryl Ward 8
IF - Mike Fontenot 4
IF - Ronny Cedeno 5
RP - Kevin Hart 4

Cubs total score: 113+27 = 140

I predict the Cubs will win 86 games this year, and finish second to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Players Headed for Big/ Bad Years

Some players I am optimsitic about;

Carlos Marmol
Dontrelle Willis
Daric Barton
Joey Votto
Rickie Weeks
Corey Hart
Clay Buchholz
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Jacoby Ellsbury
Nick Swisher
Kosuke Fukudome
Juan Uribe
Alex Gordon
Billy Butler
Ian Kinsler
Ryan Zimmerman
Fukudome
Ichiro
Justin Upton
Josh Hamilton
Matt Capps
Ben Sheets
Hank Blalock
James Loney
James Shields

Some I think are headed for disappointing seasons:
Gary Sheffield
Cole Hamels
Joe Borowski
Eric Byrnes
Juan Pierre
Pat Burrell
Fausto Carmona
Ubaldo Jiminez
Dustin McGowan
Felix Hernandez
Ryan Braun
David Ortiz
Kevin Gregg
Randy Johnson
Ryan Theriot

Im a little low on time, so I will finish this a bit later. Chew on this partial list, for the time being...

2008 Season Predictions!

Well I/we are back here regularly to the Infield Box, now with the season technically already under way. Opening day, though, is for most teams (including our Cubs) not until Monday.

This is the twilight season of American League dominance, baseball fans. Believe it. The young talent is twice as good in the National. Either this year or next, the NL will begin a run of All-Star Game victories.

Here are how the 2008 races shape up, as I see it:

2008 AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Why not again? One year at a time, Red Sox nation is achieving parity with the law of averages. The Yankees are the second best team here. They are too loaded for me to think that the Jays can catch them, though they do have a realistic chance. No, it is still not the Rays' year. When will it be? If the young talent develops, and the Red Sox get old, and the Yankees' pitchers disappoint, then there could be a run for this team. The Orioles are backing up the truck now. Erik Bedard was traded; Brian Roberts will be next.

2008 AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals

The Tigers are just too loaded not to win. How can ALL of it fail? There is to much talent here for bad individual seasons to stop a division title. I like the White Sox; Kenny Williams really knows how to build on the fly. After last year, it is easy to forget just how good many Sox players are. If Detroit just doesn't care, this could be a first place finish for the Sox. Cleveland has a thin rotation and a bullpen that goes way up or way down year to year. Guess which kind they are due for? I still like their lineup though. The Twins lack the great pitching they had in years past. But they will be ahead of the Royals because of Mauer and Morneau. Kansas City cannot match that, though Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, is in fact a great start.
2008 AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A's

The Angels will cruise in a weak division. Sure is nice to be the Angels. I think the Rangers will have a lot of hitting, and little pitching. Their pickup of Josh Hamilton was astute, and I think that Hank Blalock will come back strong. I really like Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young is still here. The Mariners added Erik Bedard. their idea that they should trade a blue-chip prospect like Adam Jones in order to "win now" was seriously misguided. They have some talent, but does anyone see them in the World Series? Oakland traded it's best hitter and best pitcher. Billy Beane is reloading. Daric Barton has a great upside. Don't forget about these guys for too long.

2008 NL East
1. New York Mets
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Washington Nationals

The Mets will be more hungry than a veteran team normally is; we all know why. And now they have Santana, who hasn't been seen before by the NL hitters. The Braves never really die, do they? They have some good young talent. The Marlins also have a lot of talented youngsters. They have good young players on the rise both as hitters and pitchers. The Phillies really peaked last year. They have Rollins and Chase Utley. What else do they have? The Nationals plan to ride out this year based on their new stadium.

2008 NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Houston Astros
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. St. Louis Cardinals

Wow, the Brewers have talent. I'm not sue if they are ready to win big or not, but they have too many players with chances to break out to overlook this team and to believe that the generally over-30 Cubs will be better. The Astros have some decent players. Here, that is good enough for 3rd. The Reds have some young talent, and Dusty Baker gets the most out of a team in his early years. The Pirates have some players who are good that you've never heard of, unless you play fantasy baseball. But have you seen the lineup that St. Louis plans to use? That could really implode if Pujols ends up having to have surgery (which he should do, since this year is a lost cause).

2008 NL West
1. San Diego Padres
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Francisco Giants

Any of these NL West teams would be a threat even for second place in the NL Central. I like the Padres front-line pitching; Jake Peavy and Chris Young is a great leg up on the competition. They are better than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. The Dbacks have a lot of very young players who might slip a bit when the league focuses on getting them out this year. They lack a true #3 hitter, and collectively strike out too much. The Dodgers have enough talent to win often enough. There are some good things about this team, but they are not a true threat. The Rockies in fourth? Really? Yes, but with about 75 wins. There is not one single veteran pitcher with a real resume here. Matt Holliday is the best offensive player, but most other players will have real problems repeating their performances. Todd Helton in particular has disappointed for several years now. The Giants have some outstanding young pitchers, such as Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain. They have nothing else. The healing has begun; 2008 is the year the Giants take their medicine.

Wild Card Races:
AL Wild Card Contenders: White Sox, Yankees, Cleveland. Winner? White Sox.
NL Wild Card Contenders: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Astros, Marlins. Winner? I say Atlanta, though Lou Piniella (and it will be because of him if it happens) can will the Cubs in to the post season. IF that happens the common belief that it is the Cubs year will alter the usual we-are-cursed narrative that manifests in such things as the Bartman game.

Cubs Rotation Very Promising This Year

Starting pitching will be the Cubs' strength this year. We have a good surplus of arms. When you have that, you are in good shape because pitching wins ballgames and championships. We have a legit ace in Zambrano, a great young lefty in Rich Hill, and a solid veteran in Ted Lilly. The favorites to be the other two starters are Ryan Dempster and Jon Lieber. If anything goes wrong, there is still Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart. This miles better than 2006, when Dusty Baker was forced to send out there anyone who was healthy and was willing to do it; this is how Sean Marshall got to the majors too soon, and why Carlos Marmol was stuck in the starting rotation. A smart GM stockpiles starting pitchers. Jim Hendry has also done it.

Pirates... Still Destined for Below .500

What's to say about the Pittsburgh Pirates? Since the day that Francisco Cabrera singled home Sid Bream to eliminate the Pirates, they have been irrelevant when the topic was winning. After that game, Barry Bonds went free agent. At the time, he was an exciting young player at the top of his physical ability. No one dreamed that he would ever challenge Hank Aaron. Now, Bonds is a ramshackle pariah, a living joke and a symbol of baseball's excess. It took a long time to reach that point. All of which illustrates just how long it has been since the Pirates mattered.

They haven't won a pennant since the days of Willie Stargell, Dave Parker, John Candelaria, and Kent Tekulve. It is sad, but as a Cub fan my sympathy is limited for any team I have ever witnessed a World Champion. I started watching baseball in 1979. I can still remember seeing them take on the Orioles on a raised up TV in the Einstein School gym during a Cub Scout meeting. Back then, Scouting came first. Big mistake; I missed some 1984 playoff games that way. By the way, the Orioles haven't been prominent much lately either.

What I'm saying is, gee, the Pirates still exist, but, well, don't bother worrying about them. They only threaten the Cubs in the role of spoiler. I'm much more worried about LaRussa's Cards, Dusty's Reds, and Ozzie's Sox ruining our season with some demoralizing and disrespectful defeats at the worst possible time (Cub fans, we are not short of arch-rivals these days. Especially since our sort-of arch rival Milwaukee is very, very good now).

What do the Pirates have? Tom Gorzelanny (Triton College player and Chicago native), Ian Snell, and Paul Maholm. In a best case scenario, they become the best three-person group of starters in the division. But what usually happens in Pirate land these days is that they count on certain players and then those players go out and let them down.

They also have Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Xavier Nady, and Jason Bay. It's an acceptable core, sort of. it's just not enough. The only hope for the Pirates is to keep this team together and hope they bond and jell as a unit while improving as individuals. And of course, those three pitchers need to come through again. Even so, it still wouldn't be enough.

Rejoice! Cardinals Headed for Hard Times!

Continuing my NL Central preview, here is my view on the Cardinals. They have made little secret that they are rebuilding. Jim Edmonds is gone, David Eckstein is gone, Scott Rolen, and once again they have not been active in the free agent market. A few years ago, the Cardinals regularly brought in top talent through trades, and then signed them to long term deals (Rolen and Edmonds are the best cases of this). Ever snice their surprise championship in 2006, the Cardinals have been conservative with their money, preferring to live off of that glow, instead of pushing to repeat. Now they have probably the weakest lineup ni the division, even with having Albert Pujols at first base. With the starters scheduled to be Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan, the Cardinals outfield will have some power but have troubnle gettnig on base. The infield also is full of guys who can't hit; Adam Kennedy, and Cesar Izturis are the up the middle glove men. Troy Glaus is present at third. If he stays helathy, he will help. The Cardinals could really hit if everything is perfect, but that is not what a team should count on, and it's not what fans want to see either.

Juan Gonzalez (yes, HIM!) is in the Cardinals' camp, with a chance to make a comeback at age 38. It is exciting to think about his bat in its prime, but 38 is very old for a player with a bad back like Gonzalez has. His work ethic has been challenged in the past as well.

The Cardinals are set in only a couple of places on the pitching roster. Adam Wainwright is the best starting pitcher left, not counting Chris Carpenter, who is a great pitcher but is coming off of an injury. I think that as great of a manager as Tony LaRussa is, he needs someone to build his pitching staffs for him. When left on his own, he focuses on gettnig the most out of his pitchers and then turning it over to his bullpen. Everywhere that he has managed, he has come to a point of havnig too many six inning pitchers. Now he has created this problem in St. Louis too; the rest of the rotation is a real collection of oddballs and prayers. I'm talking about Matt Clement, Braden Looper, Mark Mulder, and Joel Piniero. None of these guys have been both healthy and productive in any recent year.

You can count on LaRussa to get the most out of his bullpen, and to fnid random guys and brign them to ERAs under 3.50. He does this year in and year out, in a great tradition going back to Dennis Eckersley, Rick Honeycutt, and Gene Nelson. Established closer Jason Isringhausen is back. I am confident that Tony can build a good bullpen with the players in camp.

But its not enough; the Cardinals now lack young, hungry position players, and good, young 200-inning type starting pitchers. Were Wainwright to hurt his arm, and Carpenter not to come back healthy, it could be a disaster in their rotation. As it is, I think the Cardinals will be around .500. Without LaRussa, it would be far less. But also without LaRussa, there would be more of an emphasis on rebuilding. This is why LaRussa eventually had to leave Oakland; he refused to rebuild and to play losing games today in return for bigger winnings tomorrow.

Do We Need Brian Roberts?

The Cubs are trying to trade for Brian Roberts still. There is a good side and a bad side to this deal. I am still worried about trading with our old, Andy MacPhail. I think any GM should be wary of trading with someone who knows their farm system inside and out like MacPhail does. It has not been very long since Andy was here, and he was a great baseball mind in his past (though he was unable to make it work here in Chicago). Second, Roberts has been listed as a steroid user in the Mitchell Report. It is not so much that I think the Cubs should be too good to employ any former steroid users; I just worry that his only real good season he ever had was a result of a substance he is no longer on. If this is true, we may give Baltimore great prospects for a mediocre and injury-prone second baseman.

On the other hand, Brian Roberts would give us a legitimate lead-off hitter, one who can give our lineup more lefty/righty balance. Really, with Roberts, Fukudome, and possibly Felix Pie, we would be OK against tough right handers who have eaten the Cubs' righty-dominated lineups alive in the past.

Mark DeRosa is our second baseman at the moment, but he is not a great defender.

Despite this, he is a great utility man. I think that he would be best used as the Cubs' irregular regular, popping up in the lineup more often than not at a combination of second, third, first, left, and right, and even shortstop once in a blue moon.

The point is, I think, that I have softened my opinion against acquiring Roberts. I can favor this deal only if we don't give MacPhail TOO much in return, and if Piniella will make it a priority to get 500 plate appearances for DeRosa, enough for him to feel respected and eager to contribute.