Saturday, October 4, 2008

Can We Still Win This Thing?

We all feel a hell of a lot less optimistic than we did a few days ago, as we should. That is only natural. There is only one thing that mitigates this feeling of being utterly screwed: you have to remember the two times in our lives that the Cubs had the advantage that the Dodgers do now, and blew it.

Exhibit A: The bartman game. We've got 2 games at home, and only need to win one. Yes, we didn't get one. That's what the Dodgers need now.

Their roster has flaws, such as, they lack a true ace starting pitcher, they have only one legitimate star hitter, and their closer is not healthy.

Exhibit B: Cubs-Padres, 1984. Remember how we embarrassed the Padres in the opener in that series? Well maybe, just maybe, we are now lurking on the other side of that wall. We've got a more veteran team, and now that we've gone past panic in to reisngation, I think the players will be looser.

So what's the blueprint?

A great game by Harden in game three (always a realistic hope with Rich Harden), somehow (I'm not sure yet) win game 4 with Ted Lilly, and if they do those two things, Wrigley will be totally insane on Tuesday. In that case, just don't let Manny do anything about it, and then we are looking really good.

What can Lou do with the lineup to bring this about?
1) Fukudome has to sit. You know you're in a slump when Joe Torre purposely brings in a reliever against your platoon split so that your manager leaves you in.
Who goes in? Normally, DeRosa goes to RF and Fontenot to 2B to maintain the two-lefties setup. Now, I wonder if DeRosa is healthy enough to play right, with whatever is going on with his ankle. Because Fontenot is exactly what we need against the Dodgers' right-handed power arms. So, if we can't do that, then either send in Reed Johnson damn the handedness in favor of someone who can hit some, or say the heck with defense and break out Daryle Ward.
Side note: Hendry and Piniella made a big mistake not bringing Hoffpauir along. They should, if they get the chance, take Howry off of the roster and put Hoffpauir on it before the next series.
2) Edmonds should move up in the lineup. He is the only power hitter we have who is not playing tense right now.
3) If Soto is not healthy, consider Henry Blanco.
4) If Harden has trouble early, bring Carlos marmol in right away, and go with that until he's gassed. Then choose between Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, and Sean Marshall. These are the reliable pitchers right now: avoid the others.

Overlooked X Factor, as to why we are losing:
There is one guy who most likely is helping the Dodgers pitch-by-pitch.
He did it here, he did it in Atlanta, and its got to have something to do with the way the LA pitchers got so hot at the end, Billingsley being the best example. When he was a Cub, he used to call pitches from the dugout. We should not have let maddux go? It was the right thing to do in '06... we gave him a chance to finish his career as a winner instead of losing here with Dusty. That said, maybe when San Diego was shopping him this year, we should have given him Marquis' job. Not that I don't like Marquis. Although, watching him pitch gets old!

So, root for a flat Dodger team, and a fired-up Rich Harden. If he brings his A game, we will score enough to win. His tendency to get outs by strikeout will also give our stressing fielders a chance to relax a bit. If we can get this one, our chances actually come up to closer to 50-50. The key is not to have quit already, and I hope they have not.

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