Reds Are a Mystery This Year

When I think of the Cincinnati Reds this year, i think of two names: Dusty Baker, and Jay Bruce. Last year, the Reds dusted off Josh Hamilton, and revived the former #1 overall pick. This off-season, they traded Hamilton away specifically to clear a spot for prized prospect Jay Bruce to play center field.

We have all heard of Baker's bad reputation, as regards developing young talent. With Bruce, rated by many scouts as the best position player prospect in baseball, the wost kind of manager to have would be Dusty, especially if he is everything his critics say he is.

I doubt it, though. Baker comes in to a situation he has never had in career; managing a non-contender with no immediate expectations. My opinion says Dusty reds the tea leaves accurately, shows the wisdom of his years, and guides the Reds patiently (except maybe when he goes to Wrigley for the first time, he just might try extra hard to win those games).

So let's look at what Dusty has to work with: the biggest strength is the outfield, with Adam Dunn, Griffey, and Jay Bruce. This has an outside shot at being the majors best outfield, statwise, if Jay Bruce were to have ROY-type numbers, and Griffey stays healthyish. I wouldn't ask for more than "ish" from Griffey.

The infield has some punch too, with outstanding 2b Brandon Phillips, Encarnacion at 3b, Jeff Keppinger back to see if he can hit .300 again at SS, and either veteran Scott Hatteberg at first, or top prospect Joey Votto taking over.

The pitching staff is not deep, though it has great starting pitching at the front of the rotation. Aaron Harang is a true ace that I watched beat Carlos Zambrano twice in 2007. Bronson Arroyo is a great pitcher, with stats that look worse than they are playing in Cincinnati's homer-tacular home park. Other starters include Homer Bailey, and Jeremy Affeldt. Chad Cordero is the new closer, but steady veteran Dave Weathers remains to help in the setup role.

Baker is known for getting the most of his players, and this will be the case in 2008 for the Reds. I predict the Dusty Effect will get the Reds out in front early, but their lack of pitching will eventually catch up with them. Conceivably the Reds could win the division with 90 or so wins IF Harang has a Cy-Young kind of season, Arroyo a career year, Jay Bruce hits .300 with 30 homers, Dunn and Griffey give the usual production, and Cordero is outstanding in the pen. So, yes, what I'm saying is that the Reds can win if everything goes perfect. But in this age of baseball, some teams, such as Rays, Royals, or Pirates, cannot say the same. As Cub fans, we have endured some seasons in which even if everything went perfect, we still wouldn't have gone to the playoffs.